Yesterday was full of campaigning and trying to sway Ava and Vince. Rylie’s group thinks they already have them and Rachel’s group was trying to make sure they can get them. They also haven’t realized they don’t automatically have Mickey’s vote to keep Morgan.
Why does tonight’s eviction feel like it will make or break the season? It won’t but it does feel that way at the moment. Rachel’s feeling that way too and last night said it was a bad hoh if Rylie doesnt leave. Unfortunately, she had Ashley in her ear agreeing with her. Since Rachel put up Rylie, I think she’s beginning to lose the plot. If Mickey leaves, it’s still a good hoh. She will have just made another enemy in Rylie a bit faster.
Mickey’s been talking about targeting Rachel just as much as she was last week. Rylie’s probably more likely to win comps so obviously it would be best for Rachel if he left tonight. (It’s what happens when you try to fight more than one battle at a time) Rachel didn’t have the votes to take out Rylie because she was using logic and that doesn’t work this year.
If Mickey leaves, it’s a success but on a smaller scale. For now, Will, Ashley and Morgan have moved away from Mickey. The longer she stays, the more likely they mend things with each other. (Look at Rachel and Morgan) In my opinion, Rachel’s more likely to keep her allies loyal to her if Mickey’s not there.
Rylie was going to target Rachel anyway. She’s just moved up higher on his list. If she’d known how much Kelley hates her, maybe she would’ve put her up, but she doesn’t and here we are. I still think anything could happen tonight, but for now, it looks like:
Mickey vs Morgan – Mickey leaves
Mickey vs Rylie – Mickey leaves
Morgan vs Rylie – ?
The Morgan vs Rylie vote comes down to Vince, Ava and Mickey. Ava and Vince went back and forth on it all day. Vince wants to keep Morgan but he knows he’ll lose the other side if he keeps her. (Lauren, Katherine, Keanu, Kelley) Morgan is good for his game but I see his dilemma. He views that group as having the stronger competitors and I agree. Sure, he’d be keeping Morgan but why would he trust the new Judges alliance? He’d need to start working with people he feels have been targeting him all season. He doesn’t trust Rachel won’t target him and I don’t blame him.
In a perfect scenario, he would’ve flipped Lauren and Keanu to voting out Rylie. (It was never gonna heppen) He needed to do it in a way that Rylie didn’t have the votes so his vote didn’t matter. He tried (softly) with Lauren but she wasn’t budging. Lauren acknowledged that Morgan was good for Vince’s game but Rylie was better for hers. (Lauren would be crazy to vote out Rylie over either Mickey or Morgan)
It’s one of the tricky things about playing big brother. The same target isn’t always best for an entire alliance. That leads me to Ava and her reasoning. I agree and also disagree with Ava. She knows Mickey’s said she would use Ava as a pawn and she’s never been close to Morgan. She also knows Morgan found out that she’d be Ava’s replacement nom last week. (Maybe she worries it gave Morgan an excuse to put her up) She thinks she has a good relationship with Rylie so based only on that, it makes sense for her to keep him.
Similar to the Rachel/Kelley issue, Ava doesn’t know Rylie would put her up. He’s promised her he wouldn’t but if he’s targeting some combination of Rachel, Ashley and Morgan, who does Ava think may go up as a pawn if one of them wins a veto?
Ava also plays more of a personal game. (She’s not the only one) She likes Rachel and Will but she isn’t really interested in working with Ashley or Morgan. Mickey’s already burned her so she doesn’t want to work with her anymore either. On top of that, she has a good relationship with Lauren and Lauren’s on the other side. She gets angry listening to Ashley and Morgan shit talking Lauren so much. Ava goes off of vibes and who she wants to work with individually. I don’t think she bases her decisions on her positioning in the game. (The only thing I’m fairly certain of with Ava, she may need a new job. If she thinks Rylie’s so great, she can’t read auras for shit!)
I was really disappointed in Will yesterday. He could have gotten through to Ava and without a lot of effort. He didn’t even try to work on her.
As for Mickey, I don’t know what the hell she’s been doing. I do know, if she leaves tonight, it’s solely her fault. She’s the one who openly discussed using her allies as pawns. She’s the one who started talking about wanting to target Rachel. She’s also the one who claimed she’d never said anything bad about Rachel. She said this to the same people who’d heard her say all the things.
She’s like Rylie and Kelley, where she just throws out a bunch of personal insults. Don’t tell me about Rachel’s husband and children. Don’t tell me how she’s the same person as when she played 15 years ago. (Especially since you didn’t see the seasons) Tell us why she’s bad for your game! The crazy thing is, Rachel was great for Mickey’s game. Mickey’s a bigger target than she realizes and Rachel is a fantastic target in front of her.
She stole a guy’s hoh, put him on the block and immediately after doing that, made him one of her closest allies. (He still plans to target her) She’s spent this week saying she’s keeping Rylie over Morgan too. Maybe she is, maybe she isn’t, I don’t know. When she talked to Rylie and Katherine, she sounded adamant about it. When she talked to Will last night about keeping Morgan, not so much. When Will said something about Morgan staying over Rylie, Mickey asked “so tell me, why we’re doing that again?” She also told Will they should keep Rylie to go after Rachel. I’m putting a lot of emphasis on Mickey’s vote because if she doesn’t vote to keep Morgan, it doesn’t matter how Vince and Ava vote. Morgan would still leave against Rylie if she doesn’t have Mickey’s vote.
Other than tracking Vince and Ava’s votes, here’s a few other things from the day yesterday:
Ashley is back at it with the Mickey thing. When Rachel said her HOH would be a failure if Rylie didn’t leave, I already mentioned that Ashley agreed. Rachel brought up the things Mickey had been doing and Ashley said it was equally both of their fault. (No Ashley, it isn’t. Rachel never turned on Mickey) Mickey is Ashley’s blind spot because she thinks she needs Mickey in the game. (Mickey was talking about taking Ashley out even before she started in on Rachel)
I’ll give Ashley this much, she can be done with someone personally but recognize they’re good for her game and want them to stay. Alot of these players are immature and they don’t know how to target someone without getting nasty and personal. Kelley said she didn’t want to evict Rachel until jury started. (No, it’s not for a vote like Mickey and Morgan’s reasoning) Kelley wants Rachel in jury to make sure Rachel misses her wedding anniversary with Brendon. (I mean, why?)
Rylie doesn’t know how to communicate without being insulting. I’ve never heard him say anything about what would be good for his or Katherine’s games. He says things like “I’m gonna f*cking win the f*cking hoh and f*cking put that f*cking bitch on the block.” (I’m thinking Rylie has a very small vocabulary. Is the f bomb filler for all the words he doesn’t know?)
Ashley pointed out to Rachel their side had the power for 3 weeks but somehow weren’t in a better position. (That’s what happens when you keep taking out people you’re working with)
Rachel said “why are these people so bad at big brother?” (Rachel is Dan Gheesling compared to this cast)
Ashley finding out Mickey’s been campaigning for Rylie to stay:
Kelley is telling everyone her target will be Rachel….for putting up Rylie…and keeping her safe. (Idiot)
Vince feeling the stress of trying to play both sides:
Katherine thinks America will be pissed at Rachel for trying to split up a shomance. (Ummmm)
Mickey told Morgan that Ashley is worried about how Ava is voting. Mickey thought it was ridiculous and said she has Ava’s vote locked down. She thinks Ashley’s “weird” for worrying about things that don’t matter. Mickey KNOWS she has Ava’s vote to stay. (Ava is voting out Mickey in both scenarios as of now)
Rachel continued trying to convince Ava to vote out Rylie. She brought up the dangers of keeping a showmance in the house and said he could win more comps than Mickey. Ava told Rachel she’s concerned Vince is lying to them and he isn’t actually voting with them. (She should be) She knows her vote doesn’t matter if they don’t have Vince’s vote.
Vince told Morgan he may not keep Mickey over Rylie. She told him he would be picking a side and said the Judges alliance would protect him. She also told him about Zach’s power like it was some big deal. (Zach’s gone, the money’s gone, the power’s gone, who gives a crap?)
A new fake alliance for Kelley and Keanu’s benefit:
Rylie said he thinks Rachel’s husband is upset with her over this move. This is ‘Rachel’s husband’ last night on RHAP and no, he isn’t upset with Rachel. Haha
They also had the halfway party yesterday evening. They didn’t seem to care that much about it so neither do I. There was pizza, a cake and the feeds were down so consider this topic covered.
Some things from last nights episode:
The OTEV Hog Father (Anyone have a favorite otev?):
Lauren laughing at Morgan in the diary room over Zach’s power announcement:
Mickey asking Lauren to throw one of them the veto, as if Lauren couldn’t go on the block as a replacement:
Someone doctored Will’s thought bubble into this:
Rachel lifting an eyebrow to Lauren as she put up Rylie:
When people react like this to someone going on the block, that should be a sign to get rid of them:
Lauren after the veto ceremony and gambling on a Rachel bluff. It’s the definition of FAFO:
Katherines reaction:
The left side of the memory wall has really taken some hits:
A few quotes:
Mickey to Katherine: “If Rylie comes off the block, I’m voting for him to stay.” (?)
Ava: “Tucker had exquisite gameplay.” (?)
Lauren to Kelley: “I want to take my brain out, shake it like a snow globe, and then put it back in and close my eyes.” (?)
Alright BBJ family, thats it for me today. I think the votes still up in the air today. I’m pretty sure Mickey’s gone if she doesn’t win the block buster comp. If I was betting, I think Vince is going to keep Rylie over Morgan, based on how he was acting but I really don’t know. I’d look for any conversations he has with Ava today to get a better idea. He wants them to vote together so it gives him a little more cover.
I know Rylie needs to go and I’m really disappointed in the edit he got last night. Production doesn’t have to throw him under the bus but they also don’t have to present the “showmance” the way they’re showing it to the audience either. I agree with Steve that technically, Rylie isn’t breaking any rules. Emotional manipulation and intimidation have always been a part of this game whether we like it or not. It doesn’t make it any less disturbing to watch tho. Everything I talked about today was purely based on strategic game decisions. Obviously, I want Rylie evicted tonight too.
Have a great Thursday.
Mel
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