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Good evening, everyone
I’m not exactly sure how many live updates there will be tonight because as of around 5:30, the feeds went down likely for the PoV competition. No clue how long that will take.
However, I didn’t want to leave you hanging because it sounds like things have flipped in the Big Brother house.
As I predicted, the Lolo/Natalie alliance is beginning to gravitate toward Ricky, but this is mostly due to a combination of both Tom and Lolo’s paranoia. Tom is freaked out about the power (which as we confirmed tonight, Tamar got it, but I already guessed as much), so he’s been trying to steer the ship in another direction before it was ready to go there. He had a very solid 5 person thing going but for some reason was terrified of actually getting to the final 5 with Ricky. This is likely because he saw as I did, and that is Ricky is closer to Lolo and Natalie so will likely end up going in that direction when the inevitable happens and the final 5 had to battle it out.
Rather than wait until 5, Tom wanted to get rid of that problem now and go back down to 4. Lolo and Natalie are not fans of that, but Lolo has been far more vocal about it, so she has been going back and forth with Tom on the issue all day. Her idea is to stay the course and just get rid of Joey, but he really REALLY wants to backdoor Ricky now that he has the chance. I personally think it’s not a great move because there are still way too many people in the house for 4 people to feel that confident. We’re still in the ‘numbers’ part of the season because power can quickly shift if one of them doesn’t win HoH. Tom said today “we can go out there and high five and let everyone know we’re aligned and there is nothing they can do”. Wrong.
By potentially voting Ricky out now, they’d head into the next HoH competition essentially 3 against 4 with the odds against them. All it takes is one crazy bounce or one lucky guess and suddenly Joey is HoH and his alliance is then guaranteed down a member. Let’s pretend Joey nominates Tom and Kato and gets Kato out, next HoH would be 3 against 3 which is a coin flip.
Here are the rough odds based on Tom’s options over the next two evictions and assuming Ricky really does work with them until the final 5
Vote out Joey:
- Next HoH – 57% chance of winning
- Second HoH – 66% chance of winning
Vote out Ricky:
- Next HoH – 43% chance of winning
- Second HoH – 50% chance of winning
Put simply, if they vote out Ricky, they have a mere 43% chance of winning the next HoH and will only have a 50% chance of winning the one after that. If they stay to the plan, they’ll have a 57% then 66% chance of winning the next two. Call me crazy, but I’d go with the numbers. I think my math is right. That’s because if they stick with the plan, they’ll either win HoH and that person will be ineligible to play the next HoH or they’ll lose and be down a number. The only way odds would change would be if they kept Joey and somehow convinced him to go after someone like Dina should he win HoH.
Kind of confusing, but put simply – math is against Tom and Kato if they vote out Ricky. Both Ricky and Joey are strong players so they basically cancel each other out with strength, except Ricky is (or was) loyal and Joey wasn’t. It’s actually kind of stupid to target Ricky right now the more I think about it. It’s even worse knowing that Lolo and Nat aren’t fully on board and have been running to tell Ricky his plan.
Due to Lolo and Natalie clearly choosing their side (Ricky), Tom has lost this season. It’s not a matter of if he gets voted out, it’s when. Kato may not be far behind, although he does have a chance to salvage his season and maybe make top 5.