Will Adam Float His Way To $500k?

Now that I have a few moments of calm time between the storms (the second being the stupid hurricane heading my way), I wanted to blog a little bit about last night and where each person in the house stands.   Based on the reactions I’ve been seeing from my facebook, to twitter to comments, right now it appears everyone is really pissed at Shelly for the turn of events in the house.   If you’re a Jeff and Jordan fan, she is definitely the one to blame, but does she deserve the blame?

Shelly is trying to win the game, and her best move was to split up Jeff and Jordan.  I know some feel she doesn’t need the money, and by the way she talks about flying to China all the time, she probably doesn’t need it as bad as you or me.  That being said, neither do Jeff and Jordan, so that argument is pretty much nullified.

Honestly, not a lot of people who go on these shows need the prize money as much as the average person watching it.  How many of us can afford to take 3-4 months off of work like reality stars do?  Sure, there are some who badly need the money and took a huge risk by going on the show, but the point of reality shows is not who needs it the most (me!), it’s who plays the game the best, because in the end, it is a game.

So let’s analyze where everyone stands in the house right now…

Shelly – Shelly made a pretty huge move this week in going against her longtime ally in Jeff.   This is a hard move to evaluate for Shelly because reality is, she wasn’t going to win against Jeff or Jordan in the finals.  That said, turning against your alliance will likely not earn you any votes even if you’re in the finals.  Her biggest mistake was siding with Jeff and Jordan as early and as long as she did.   She is a bright person, and should have seen the obvious from day 1, that being the 3rd wheel against “America’s Sweethearts” was a risky decision.  To piss them off when they’re guaranteed jury members is a Russell Hantz maneuver, and any Survivor fans can tell you, he’s never won top prize.

Analysis:  I don’t see a situation where Shelly can win the top prize, so I put her chances at 0%

Adam – Adam is the male Shelly, except instead of betraying his alliance, he stayed the course and may reap the rewards of others actually playing the game.   He knew he needed to vote out Jeff in the double elimination, and knew he needed to make a big move and side with Daniele, but he weathered the storm and now is in actually a pretty good position, unless he messes it up, which he still can.   Despite being the exact type of game player the vet 4 alliance hates, he managed to stay close with them all the way through, and may earn a few ‘friend’ votes from the jury.

However, by him quickly floating back to Shelly and crew while Rachel and Jordan are still in the house, it may come back to bite him if and when those two hit the jury and report that Adam left the sinking ship as soon as things got bad.   He still has a very tight wire to cross if he wants enough votes to secure a win, and really needs to stop ignoring Jordan and Rachel now that they’re on the bottom.

Analysis: Assuming Adam can continue to float by without appearing as such by Rachel and Jordan, I see him beating Shelly, Kalia or Rachel in the finals.  I see him in the final 4, which puts his odds of winning right now at roughly 70-75%

Jordan and Rachel – Right now they’re in a very bad position – Rachel more than Jordan.  Rachel has been sneaky on the fence the past few days, but suddenly at the last minute stuck to her original alliance, which may prove costly in the end.  Right now, Shelly and Kalia pretty much hate her, as does Daniele (the ring leader), so if she were to make the finals, it would really depend on who she was sitting against.  If Jordan, she’ll probably only have a vote from Brendon.   However, getting the votes is the least of her worries right now, as her goal is to just stay in the game, but I don’t see that happening past Thursday unless she wins the PoV.

Jordan is in a different position.  She was betrayed by Shelly, but is likeable enough where she can still mend fences and buy her enough time to possibly win another HoH, but with the numbers strongly against her, and her lack of desire to even be in the house any more, I don’t see much fight remaining.   The newbies were told the vets private alliance name was “The Dream Crushers” (I’ve never heard it personally though), so right now it appears their main goal is to remove the vets completely from the house.

Analysis: I don’t see either of them getting to the finals, especially since one will likely be gone this Thursday and the other will have to go against 3, maybe 4 people depending on Adam.  Simply due to the fact they have some votes if they make it, I put them at:  Rachel 5%, Jordan 15% 

Kalia – Kalia has had a pretty awful game so far, but has made up for it with two extremely crucial HoH wins at the exact right time.   She was the HoH in charge when she managed to get her own alliance member out, and is looked at as someone who just lays around and sleeps all day.. by the vets and the zingbot.  I think the only person she has a shot at winning against is Shelly at this point, and it wouldn’t shock me if those two teamed up privately.

Analysis: Her only shot is if she’s sitting in the final 2 with Shelly, so I put her at roughly 20%

Porsche – Porsche is playing the game Daniele should have been playing, and because of that we may be looking at the winner of Big Brother 13, unless Adam floats into the finals.   She received the golden key early, and stayed with the vets early on, but never fully committed to anyone.   She let everyone get blood on their hands and hate each other, and then when she finally chose a side, she starts winning competitions.  If this was by design, she would be known as a fantastic player.. however, I think it was more luck than anything.  I still think it will be enough to earn her the votes against Shelly, Kalia or maybe even Adam.

Analysis: Because I think she beats Shelly, Kalia and possibly Adam, that’s everyone I predict to make it to the final 4.  This means I’m going to put her odds of winning at roughly 85% right now