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Is Jag ‘Paul 2.0’?

October 23, 2023 | 11 Comments
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Author: Mike

Jag has won five competitions in a row. That’s right, 5. F-I-V-E. Haven’t done the numbers, but I highly suspect that’s the largest number of consecutive competitions won in Big Brother history. When Claire won the invisible HOH competition in season 23, she couldn’t compete the following week. While Jag dominates the backyard, is it coming at the cost of jury votes?

There is a very real chance Jag could lose in the end despite amassing one the highest number of overall competition wins (currently six) in a single season. In this piece, I will break down how the votes might go if it is a Jag/Matt final two. 

Cam respects gameplay, but he also cuts ties to former allies and knows now that Jag and Matt didn’t really have his back. Cam’s vote, for the sake of argument, goes to Cirie, Felicia, and probably Matt before Jag if the Minutemen really are the last ones standing. 

Cory, who said it himself that putting he and his showmance partner up for eviction was the smart move, is likely to vote for Jag. He respects the game and Jag is the one executing the moves over the past two weeks. It can even be argued that it has been three weeks because Bowie’s HOH was completely manipulated by Jag and Matt. Unless America is sitting next to Jag, Cory’s vote likely favors Jag. 

The votes are currently 1-1 in this hypothetical reality.

Here comes the interesting part. 

Blue is Jag’s target and he might tell her before the votes are cast. She could be mad and turn into a bitter jury member against him. After all, this is two straight weeks where Jag put her up for eviction. Despite warnings from America, Blue is not a player who generally sees the bigger picture. The brand strategist lacks strategy in her goodbye messages and it’s highly probable that she would feel completely betrayed by Jag and Matt. She would vote for anyone besides Jag to win if she goes out on his HOH. 

Bowie is probably going to jury sometime before finale night. She could be sent out the door during the upcoming double eviction as mere cannon fodder. Bowie is close to Jag and Matt, but Jag wants to get rid of other competition threats. It just takes two votes to send someone out and Felicia will vote with the Minutemen as long as one of them is off the block. However, Bowie forgave allies who lied to her pretty easily before. Her vote is for Jag to win against anyone, most likely. 

That’s 2-2. Cory and Bowie for Jag. Cam and Blue against Jag. 

The remaining three are America, Cirie, and Felicia. America does not like Jag, but she will very likely vote with Cory. That would make it 3-2 in favor of Jag. Cirie is closer to Matt. At least, that’s the way it seems right now. They have been allies for a very long time despite playing on different sides at the beginning of the game. Cirie, due to her connection to Matt, probably votes for Matt. 

Here comes the wildcard: Momma Fe. 

Felicia is direct, confrontational, and messy. Jag doesn’t want to nominate Bowie and that is drawing the suspicion of Felicia. Felicia has not had confrontations, though little, with Matt like she has had with Jag. Remember, when Felicia went up to Jag and Cory while the guys were talking about the invisible HOH power in the hammock? That did not go well for Jag and it’s how you make people feel — not what you say to them — that matters. She’ll see the whole picture in the jury house and have long discussions with Cirie. 

Ultimately, her previous frustration with Jag might be enough to vote for Matt to win Big Brother 25.

The jury house will host good debates with the likes of Cory, Cam, and Cirie pointing out both sides. I’m not sure how much dialogue we will see within the show, but I am very excited to see how this season turns out. 

What are your thoughts? Am I on to something or is this completely out of left field?  

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Big Brother Stats

Most Votes Received

Name Wins
Cameron Hardin 14
Kirsten Elwin 13
Jag Bains 12
Reilly Smedley 12
Brandon Frenchie 11

Most Nominated

Name Wins
Felicia Cannon 8
Taylor Hale 6
Brittany Hoopes 5
Terrance Higgins 5
Xavier Prather 5

Most Veto Wins

Name Wins
Jag Bains 7
Michael Bruner 5
Brittany Hoopes 4
Kyland Young 3
Xavier Prather 3

Most HOH Wins

Name Wins
Matt Turner 3
Bowie Jane 3
Michael Bruner 3
Monte Taylor 3
Cameron Hardin 3
More stats to come!
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